Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 2.311840 2.456029 2.608772 2.783345 2.978246 3.190205 3.439595
2025-05-18 2.090498 2.285773 2.503088 2.765339 3.076683 3.439058 3.899747
2025-05-25 1.943300 2.165040 2.419996 2.739367 3.135523 3.620565 4.275926
2025-06-01 1.831539 2.069749 2.350595 2.712887 3.178557 3.773473 4.621356
2025-06-08 1.754236 2.006811 2.311159 2.714150 3.249183 3.960541 5.028595
2025-06-15 1.701387 1.968309 2.296493 2.741868 3.351935 4.195831 5.532877
2025-06-22 1.626087 1.896353 2.233514 2.699391 3.352611 4.284050 5.824147
2025-06-29 1.557414 1.828667 2.171278 2.652111 3.340248 4.348519 6.082628
2025-07-06 1.490665 1.760014 2.103688 2.592258 3.303571 4.370265 6.269292
2025-07-13 1.466014 1.744486 2.104947 2.626934 3.406136 4.615658 6.886106
2025-07-20 1.446847 1.734834 2.112905 2.670532 3.524263 4.897767 7.627737
2025-07-27 1.428983 1.725760 2.120621 2.713383 3.643666 5.195106 8.468996
2025-08-03 1.389756 1.686898 2.086009 2.692771 3.662329 5.323055 8.993330
2025-08-10 1.354242 1.651757 2.055020 2.675648 3.685036 5.460784 9.577267
2025-08-17 1.318882 1.615447 2.020648 2.651057 3.692718 5.570453 10.123946
2025-08-24 1.285679 1.580923 1.987309 2.625978 3.697132 5.673607 10.684699
2025-08-31 1.262306 1.559244 1.971507 2.627174 3.746562 5.871401 11.569095
2025-09-07 1.247497 1.548979 1.971727 2.653426 3.841854 6.175926 12.891461
2025-09-14 1.215038 1.512644 1.932064 2.613192 3.813532 6.213659 13.390616
2025-09-21 1.182967 1.476004 1.890757 2.568382 3.773708 6.221722 13.798289
2025-09-28 1.149164 1.436066 1.843354 2.511616 3.708133 6.165495 13.964369
2025-10-05 1.140712 1.432298 1.850055 2.544509 3.813603 6.513396 15.817134
2025-10-12 1.134759 1.431859 1.861599 2.585844 3.938542 6.929123 18.272667